COVID-19 – How Dangerous It Can Be
To calculate the intensity and risk factor of COVID-19 concludes on three things.
- Transmission rate (the rate of people getting infected by a single person).
- Case fatality rate (percentage of affected people resulted in death).
- Asymptomatic transmission (Calculating the possibility of asymptomatic transmission).
Is COVID-19 Contagious
The transmissibility or how this virus spreads can be calculated from its reproductive number (Ro), Also this indicates by which rate people can get infected by a single infected person.
As per WHO estimation this virus Ro lies between 1.4 and 2.5. But other studies show their Ro calculation between 3.6 to 4.0 and 2.24 to 3.58.
It is believed that if a disease has a reproductive number(Ro) below 1 then it will disappear gradually. If
COVID-19 is compared, the common flu has Ro about 1.3 and for SARS Ro number is about 2.0.
The Fatality Rate of Coronavirus
According to the WHO press conference the estimated fatality rate was about 2% (20 Jan 2020). But the reliability of this calculation was suspected because the true number of infected people was not known at that time (So it was believed as an early presentation of the Fatality percentage). After some time research brought the result with 3%.
As per epidemiologists, the fatality rate can vary as a virus mutat. In comparison, the fatality rate of SARS was 10% and 34% for any MARS.
The Incubation Time of COVID-19
The symptoms of Coronavirus can be observed from 2 to 14 days. In some other researches, it declared from 2 to 10 days and also 10 to 14 days. In this period an infected person can transmit this disease to another person without showing any symptoms.
Observation WRT Age and Other Conditions
An estimation made by China National Health Commission that 80% of people who died because of this virus Belong to the age group of 60 years & above, 75% of these people had already some existing health conditions.
How 44-Year-old Male Died
A 44-year male patient died in the Philippines, according to the Philippine health department the patient admitted to the hospital on January 25 and he was experiencing cough fever and sore throat. This man belonged to Wuhan from China. After getting treatment from the hospital the patient was stable and the improvement in his health observed but the patient’s condition started deteriorating just before 24 hours of his demise.
First Reported Death by COVID-19 in China
According to China’s National Health Commission, 17 deaths reported on January 22, 2020. In these 17 patients, there were 13 males and 4of them were females. The average age of these patients was 75 years ranging from 48 to 89 years.
Global Emergency Declared by WHO
The World Health Organization has declared a Global Public Health emergency because of Coronavirus from January 30.
Overall Comparison
In every passing year, 290 thousand to 650 thousand people demise being victims of some complicated viral infections and this calculation tells that 795 to 1071 people die per day. SARS has Caused 8,096 people deaths from a worldwide count in 2003. Also, MERS has a total count of 858 deaths.
Death by COVID-19 as on 26th March 2020 Reported
March 26, 2020, 15:54 GMT
COVID-19 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC
Coronavirus Cases:
494,880
Deaths:
22,290
Recovered:
119,785
ACTIVE CASES
352,805
Currently Infected Patients
335,036 (95%)
in Mild Condition
17,769 (5%)
Serious or Critical
CLOSED CASES
142,075
Cases which had an outcome:
119,785 (84%)
Recovered / Discharged
22,290 (16%)
Deaths
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